Who are ‘Trekonomics’ readers (II) : qualitative overview

Dear Trekonomics backers and readers,

As promised, here is the first installment of my responses to your responses. Please pardon the apparent lack of structured argument!

First, the mystery of the single backer sent from libertarian haunt Marginal Revolution has been solved. He is from a city above the Arctic Circle, famous for its iron ore, in lovely Sweden.

Second, I must say that people are nice. My cynicism and declining faith in humanity have been proven wrong. Your responses are an inspiration and a reminder that yes, some of the strange altruistic behaviors on display in Star Trek are in fact already a reality.

Next to the numerous words of encouragements, all much appreciated, one of you asked about my experience writing and publishing the book. Here’s DH:

“Curious about your experience getting this book written and to publication. I'm currently working on a fairly narrow-interest book (probably unsuitable for mainstream publishers) and am looking at distribution options.”

So far my experience has been very, very good. I was going to go the old school route, through an agent and a legacy publisher. Felix Salmon convinced me otherwise and connected me with Inkshares. While a startup, Inkshares has already several books under its belt. They know their stuff, and have been very supportive in both small and large ways. Larry Levitsky, chairman and co-founder, keeps repeating to me that the book is the “author’s business” and that Inkshares is merely the platform. It is an understatement and a humblebrag : Inkshares not only helps authors build a public following for their work, it also edits, designs and print the books (once successfully funded). Amazon, to mention the elephant in the room, does not.

So DH, narrow-interest does not necessarily mean small audience (Trekonomics is a case in point). In fact, promoting your “narrow-interest” project through inkshares and social media may help you reach all those interested in a much more efficient way. In short, I would definitely consider Inkshares.

Some of you expressed disappointment at the announced publishing schedule (right now, it says August 2016). For instance:

“I have to wait another year? I thought this things was ready to go. Doesn't matter -- I'll be excited whenever it arrives.”

Me too I thought it was ready to go! It is hard to stop writing and hand over the manuscript. But even when ready to go, it is not: once you hand over the manuscript, it must go through editing. It is a fairly involved process which adds to production time. Designing the cover and the look-and-feel are next. This requires many iterations and tweaks as it is what the public will see online and in bookstores. Finally, printing in large volume is not done overnight. 

In short, editing, publishing and distributing a book is neither easy nor quick. In fact it is long and difficult (and note that I am not even talking about writing itself). Legacy publishing houses have lead times of one to two years. Inkshares, while more nimble than others, is still an honest to goodness publishing house. It strives to cut down a lot of the usual time-to-market, but absolutely refuses to cut any corners or skimp on anything. So there you have it. The book, inside and out will be as awesome as can be. Which means time and care. As I mentioned before, we are doing our utmost to deliver the book in your hands earlier than advertised.

I will close this first round with this observation by another reader

“I think trekonomics is not just an understanding of what the world could be but also a state of mind. After just reading the first chapter my thinking on personal wealth, goals in life, and what is truly important, was changed forever.”

This is a very startling comment, and I cannot thank that reader enough for sharing it. It touches upon some of my long-time obsessions, most notably with the kind of effective altruism first proposed by Peter Singer in his famous 1972 paper: “Famine, Affluence and Morality.” For those who do not know about it, please take some time to read that article. It is arguably one of the most important philosophical thesis of the past 50 years.

Until the next update, with all my gratitude,

Live long, and prosper.

Manu

Who are Trekonomics readers? -- a brief statistical portrait

I wanted to know all of you better. Since it is highly impractical to ask everyone one by one, I put out a quick survey. A big thank you! to all those who answered. In aggregate, you add up to a statistically significant sample. I sent an email on Friday to all 802 people in my followers’ list (and nagged people on Twitter). I received 229 responses. This yields a margin of error of 5.48%, with a confidence level of 95%.  

So without further ado, here is your statistical portrait.

This may seem a bit of a lopsided distribution at first glance, but to be honest, I did not expect that many more pre-orders beyond those of my wife and my mother-in-law. So all the power to you, and it is refreshing to see that this is not completely an all-boys' club.

The vast majority of Trekonomics’ readers are no longer green but not quite yet in their prime earning years. I guess that makes many of you Millenials, in the parlance of our time.

Trekonomics’ readers are not only smart, but also they are straight-up achievers when it comes to formal academic education. 

I was a bit mischievous in my survey of professional occupation, if only because it’s more fun that way. So congratulations to those who selected ‘Android’ - that is probably the closest to what the author wished to be. Aside from that, I am stunned by the proportion of Vulcans, that is, those of you who self-report as scientists, researchers and educators.

Most of you have a special relationship with Star Trek. Granted the people who buy a book on the economics of Star Trek must have more than a passing interest in the show. Yet, a few of you, 2.6% to be precise, could not care less about Trek. So kudos to you, welcome to Star Trek and live long and prosper.

Personally, I find that data point fascinating. Jean-Luc Picard comes in first. I believe this must be an effect of the over-representation of millenials among you. You probably came of age watching The Next Generation.

In my next installment, I will dissect the qualitative part of the survey. There are a few great nuggets in there. So thank you again for your time and dedication. We are working very hard to deliver your book earlier than advertise. But as they say, under-promise... etc.

As usual,

Live Long and Prosper

Manu

Dear Trekonomics readers and followers,

What I learned from crowdfunding my book, Trekonomics

This past Sunday morning, Trekonomics, broke through its funding goal of 1000 pre-orders on Inkshares. I am elated and immensely thankful to all of you who backed my work. Here are a few things I have learned.

So as they say on NPR, let’s do the numbers.

Social media:

For all its might, social media (specifically Facebook and Twitter) were not significant drivers of sales. This might be due to the fact that prior to launching the campaign, I had neither a Twitter account nor a Facebook page. In addition, the Facebook page for Trekonomics is the property of an awesome Finnish rap band of the same name.

Twitter did send significant traffic to the book's fundraising page. Unfortunately, that traffic did not convert into sales at a high rate (roughly 1.43%). Commanding a sizeable social media following is the current anxious mantra of the equally anxious publishing industry. I was told by two agents on both coasts that without followers I would not be able to even pique the interest of a publisher. Either the numbers contradict that hypothesis, or Trekonomics is an outlier.

News media:

A possible explanation for Trekonomics' outlier status is the role of the news media. Very early in the campaign, the project drew the attention of Hayley Tsukuyama and Brian Fung at the Washington Post. Felix Salmon and I did a long and nerdy interview with them. The post brought a lot of traffic and got syndicated all over the world, even appearing in French translation in the weekly 'Courrier International,' to my father's and my high-school friends' delight.

That post somehow reached the eyeballs of the NYTimes' op-ed pages editors. A few days later I found myself discussing the book on the record with Anna North, culture editor for Taking Note, the Gray Lady's op-ed section blog. Where the WaPo was the catalyst, the NYT story really made the book.

These two articles, posted online with links to the book’s funding page, led to an overall conversion rate of 7.11%. More importantly, they elevated my project's profile and validated it in the eyes of the reading public.

Influencers and organic search:

That is not all. From the outset, the book had two key public champions, financial writer Felix Salmon and UC Berkeley's economics professor Brad Delong. I believe that the campaign owes its success in large part to their clout and their sterling reputation. When Brad Delong and Felix Salmon put their good names behind a book, or rather the promise of a book pending a pre-defined fundraising goal, people listen. Their pre-screening, for lack of a better word, greatly facilitated my access to established news outlets.

This proves to me that so-called influencers' marketing really works. Far from me to compare Prof. Delong and Felix Salmon to the Kardashian half-sisters. I just wonder what a mere mention of the book on Kim K.'s or Pharrell Williams' Instagram feeds would have achieved (Pharrell is one of the most famous Star Trek nerds in the world, his record label is called Star Trak for a reason - if he ever reads this...)

Furthermore, sales numbers indicate that when it comes to books, the old gatekeepers and tastemakers still rule. The validation, the imprimatur, of the established news media remain unparalleled. As the chart attests, articles and features in the New York Times, the Washington Post, Slate and Business Insider turned into a consequential amount of pre-orders (about 23% of the total).

The Internet has made it easier and faster to catch journalists' attention (the WaPo team originally contacted me through Twitter direct messages). But their attention, even more strained by social media, is not unlimited. This is where the reputation of the campaign's early champions made a difference. It helped cut through the clutter and the information overload

In addition, one can see the public influence of Felix Salmon and Brad Delong in the sales conversion figures from online searches (mostly from Google). People heard about the book and the campaign, Trekonomics was in the news and in the air (at least for a small subset of the overall population). Those who were keen on supporting it searched for it and found it. Search accounted for 27.1% of all sales, with a stellar conversion rate of 14.48%.

Blogs and other online platforms

A few blogs picked up on the project. Their contribution to overall sales was somewhat marginal.  Speaking of marginal, there is one very interesting case buried in the data: Prof. Tyler Cowen's and Prof. Alex Tabarrok's blog, Marginal Revolution. The website sent a lot of traffic to Trekonomics' book page, but did not convert nearly as well as page visits would suggest (only 1 purchase for 289 hits). Marginal Revolution and its very active and thoughtful commenters are known to skew libertarian. I must assume, based on the pathetic conversion rate, that this was spite traffic, so to speak. I must confess I am somewhat disappointed. I would have expected a bit more sales from the Ayn Rand fan club, if only because libertarianism and science fiction have so much in common..

Inkshares

Trekonomics was put up for funding through Inkshares. Inkshares is both a crowdfunding platform and an old-school publisher. Book projects that reach their funding milestone are edited, printed and distributed by Inkshares. Inkshares has already released a few books under their imprint (most notably Star Wars' screenwriter Gary Whitta's fantastic Abomination). There are more books in the pipeline. I saw the books, I held them in my hands, they are made with great care and the kind of craft that only comes from people who truly value and respect the written word.

But Inkshares is more than a crowdfunding websites and a publisher. It is also a community of writers and readers. JF Dubeau, author of The Life Engineered has described the role of Inkshares' community better than I ever could. The support of Inkshares' authors and readers lit the fuse at the campaign's onset. The crucial importance of that initial boost is not reflected in the final tally.

Email:

Well, I did email my friends and extended family to ask them to pre-order the book. It is the least appealing aspect of crowdfunding. To a preternaturally shy and private person like me, it feels incredibly awkward and uncouth. It is almost like pulling teeth. But it does work.

Email accounts for a relatively high 21.4% of all orders, with a rather average 2.4% conversion rate. Some of my well-meaning friends and family members took it upon themselves to order multiple copies. I had to restrain my sister from purchasing 100 copies and have them sent in a crate all the way to Israel.  

Still, it turns out that friends and family are in fact happy to help. They care. They have a direct, personal stake in your success. That is why they are your friends and family.

I have written a book. Should I crowdfund it through Inkshares?

Yes. Most definitely. Here's why: Inkshares translates the lean startup methodology to book publishing. (The lean startup methodology is an industry standard: it is used by many software companies to integrate market and users’ feedback into their product development cycle, so as to continually improve their offering and to minimize the risk of failure).

By removing the first layer of gatekeepers, the literary agents and the editors at legacy publishing houses, Inkshares allows authors to directly test the commercial viability of their work. Inkshares' site is set up to allow readers and prospective buyers to share their comments and feedback. This is akin to what the lean startup methodology calls validated learning: users' feedback leads to incremental product improvements, thus mitigating the risk of missing the mark.

As far as the publishing business is concerned, Inkshares' process of rapid prototyping and users' feedback looks like the future. Thanks to the Internet, it is devilishly efficient at weeding out the duds and at validating books with commercial potential. In addition, it is close to impossible to decide what to read among the millions and millions of books that populate Amazon (whether they are self-published or not). Inkshares solves that nagging problem of surfacing and curating appealing content.

Just like launching a startup, it is not for the faint of heart. It can be brutal for the author. The fruit of your labor crashes into the marketplace without much of a cushion. It is scary. You can't take it personally but you will, inevitably, because a book is a book, not a software package.

In conclusion:

In summary, while my book's lucky break was not planned, it was not entirely lucky either. Consequently, I cannot know whether such outcome is reproducible for every other crowdfunding campaign. That being said, if your work can garner the interest of influential people, and if you can convince them to lend it their support, this will probably raise your profile and improve your prospects.

Overall, Trekonomics reached its funding goal by deploying rather conventional marketing methods. Technology (social media, blogs, crowdfunding platforms) has created new venues for exposure. Yet, in these new spaces, the same influencers, gatekeepers and tastemakers have retained their clout and their ability to steer the public conversation.

The old, tried and true recipes work. And interested readers still seek and value the advice of experts and of reputable news outlets. Ultimately I believe this bodes well for both books and aspiring authors.

As for the publishing industry, I do not really know. Inkshares has allowed me to sidestep the usual intermediaries (most notably, literary agents). The crowdfunding campaign functions as an opportunity to advertise the book and build momentum well ahead of release. 

Again, thank you all for your support. The book will be out as soon as possible. We are working on it!

Live Long, and Prosper

Manu

Dear Trekonomics readers and followers,